click image to enlarge
With 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (/ZB) at 146’20 previous high resistance, a solid risk reward opportunity presents itself for a bearish strategy.  We know that /ZB sold off last time it tested these levels, so it makes logical since to assume it has a higher probability of selling off again rather than breaking through.  Of course it could break through and continue to run, but with yields at historical lows and proven previous selling interest at this level it is simply more logical to position bearish until proven wrong.
We have not put any capital to work, but will tomorrow if this resistance level has held. Something along the lines of a bearish 122/123 credit spread in TLT will likely be the route we take, but that is yet to be determined.

click image to enlarge

With 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (/ZB) at 146’20 previous high resistance, a solid risk reward opportunity presents itself for a bearish strategy.  We know that /ZB sold off last time it tested these levels, so it makes logical since to assume it has a higher probability of selling off again rather than breaking through.  Of course it could break through and continue to run, but with yields at historical lows and proven previous selling interest at this level it is simply more logical to position bearish until proven wrong.

We have not put any capital to work, but will tomorrow if this resistance level has held. Something along the lines of a bearish 122/123 credit spread in TLT will likely be the route we take, but that is yet to be determined.