July 2011
113 posts
11 tags
What the Frack?
Regardless of all the concerns around fracking, Natural Gas is a commodity that will continue to be tapped into and utilized here in the states. Given the fairly new found plethora of Natural Gas supply we have underground in the US, prices are much lower than the $14 they reached around this time in 2008. That said, anytime Natural Gas futures get down to the $4.00 level we take notice.
...
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The Elements of Risk
Written exclusively for TickerTank by Mike Kingery
Risk in trading should and can be examined by different means, some of which follow. Period of Exposure
All things else being equal, the risk of a trade is proportional to the amount of time that one is in the trade. The shorter the time exposure is, the smaller the effective risk. Day trading futures is a good case to illustrate this....
It’s “Backroad Friday” once...
Don't Worry, Be Happy
We have had a productive week here at TickerTank. Our Members enjoyed profits in our bearish QQQ play via QQQ Short Swing and QQQ 59/62 Bear Put Spread.
Aside from exiting that trade, we have entered a few new positions. All are curiously on the bullish side, which may seem strange given the scary media trying to convince the public the world is ending if we a debt deal isn’t made.
To...
Real GDP q/q: 1.3% vs 1.9% consensus, 1.9% prior... →
$$ Here's where we stay current on economic data... →
“Not every trade works right away. If the strategy makes sense and the risk is...”
Debt ceiling vote tonight. VIX has rallied 40%... →
qwerty55555 asked: hi any news on IDCC ?
14 tags
Can the Redbox Bullies Deliver?
CSTR is the name that is often pair traded with NFLX because if their Redbox kiosk business. They recently had a nice run, but have dipped from 60 to 50 in the past week. How will earnings move the stock? What are the best trades ahead of earnings? Let’s find out.
Current stock price is 50.65
Aug 50 Straddle @ 5.35 ask
Aug 47.50/52.50 Strangle @ 3.15 ask
Expected move is calculated...
SBUX Earnings Expected Move + Trade Ideas
SBUX is reporting after the bell today. Let’s analyze and see if there are any worth while trades.
Current stock price is 40.60
Aug 41 Straddle @ 2.90 ask
Aug 40/41 Strangle @ 2.40 ask
Expected move is calculated as follows: (2.90+2.40)/2 = 2.65
upside move is 43.25
downside move is 37.95
(The objective with earnings trades is to stay outside of the measured move while keeping Options...
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Gold Looking Top Heavy
Major Indices are down today (/YM -0.82%, /ES -1.30%, /NQ -1.80%, /TF -2.25%)…
Volatility is spiking since finding support at 17.15 last Thursday & Friday. Currently +8.11% @ 21.87 today…
So Gold should be soaring today, right?
Wrong. After a strong start, Gold Futures sold off and are currently in negative territory -0.10%.
To me, this is a tell that Gold demand is...
$AMZN Earnings Trade Ideas Recap
The dust has settled. AMZN Options market has had time to shake out all of the earnings report related volatility premium, so lets take a look at how the trade ideas from yesterday’s AMZN earnings post did.
“Jul5 230 Short Calls (naked) @ 1.75 bid.” Currently @ 0.99 ask, resulting in a gain of 0.76 or $76 per contract. That represents a 43.43% value decay, not bad at all.
...
AMZN Earnings: The Expected Move
AMZN reports after the bell. Here’s what the Options markets are expecting via the Jul5 Weekly Options…
Closest to the money Straddle is the 215, priced at 15.15 ask
Closest out of the money Strangle is the 210/220, price at 10.50 ask
15.15 + 10.50 = 25.65
25.65 / 2 = 12.825 (expected move)
Current price of 214.70
Upside expectation is 227.525
Downside expectation is 201.875
...
15 tags
No Ceilings: A Story of Debt
It seems there is no ceiling with regard to how ridiculous the current US leadership can be.
At least there’s a ceiling to how much they can spend…right?
Think again. Here’s some fun facts about the US Debt Ceiling:
In 1917, the first debt ceiling was set at $11.5 billion
The current debt ceiling is $14,294,000,000,000 ($14.294 trillion)
It has been raised 74 times since...
Premier Trade Alert on X
Members, please check your email inbox for details regarding our latest trade alert.
You're wrong a lot because you guess a lot. $$
Written exclusively for TickerTank by The Notorious T.I.N.Y.
10 years ago, I was a lot like you. A degenerate gambler that preferred an online brokerage account to a blackjack table (during the day, at least). I always had a directional trade on one way or another.
Then, I lost my ass.
Painful lesson, as most are. But it led me to where I am today — damn near untouchable. Not...
Government Considers Ways to Rent Foreclosed Homes →
10 tags
Backroad - Girl’s Name
Perfect song for the...
The Important Matter of Trading Commissions
Written exclusively for TickerTank by Mike Kingery
I don’t mind paying commission, really. Like taxes, I pay usually gladly because there is an implicit assumption that since I am paying taxes, I must have taxable income. It is sort of that way with commissions. Don’t evade payment, but do be mindful that you need pay only what is fair and appropriate. I use TOS Ameritrade (Thinkorswim) for...
What happens when we let the government invest our... →
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$AAPL - New milestone in Chinese counterfeiting:... →
Nasa's final flight means 800 extremely smart... →
Covered TBT Bull Put Spread
This morning, 30 year Bond Futures (/ZB) pulled back to 125 support. This resulted a nice upside continuation in TBT at the open this morning. Given the strong support at 125 in Bonds (/ZB), we took this as an opportunity to cover the TBT position we entered on Tuesday at the close.
Worked the order @ 0.40 and it filled in a few minutes. Entry was 0.70, translating to a gain of 0.30 or...
Morning Report 7/21/11
Here’s a 6 grid chart of the primary futures I watch aside from the major indices…
Crude Oil (top left) is +0.61% @ 98.95. It is approaching 100 once again, at which point we tend to be a seller. That said, the market has been strong and Crude has been tracking the market almost tick for tick. This relationship remains true this morning as the price action in Crude is almost a...
AAPL Earnings Analysis Recap
Yesterday we wrote an article regarding AAPL’s impending earnings announcement. We calculated the expected move, shared a few trade ideas, and told you about a position we were holding through earnings.
Let’s see how things turn out (blue oval indicates article publish time, orange oval indicates this mornings open)…
At the time of the post AAPL was trading at 377.00. We...
AKAM at Support, but Beware of Earnings!
AKAM is trading at 29.00 support. This presents a nice reward to risk scenario for a trade, but with July 27th earnings risk around the corner you have to be careful.
The past two earnings reports have been awful (above), but with shares at these levels there is reason to be bullish. That said, AKAM has burned me twice in the past 6 months so I feel trepidation here to say the...
12 tags
Sneak Peek Follow Up: TBT Exit Alert
We recently gave our readers a sneak peek at what Premier Members get when they receive a trade alert entry. Click here to refresh you memory.
Throughout the life of the trade, we frequently update members as to our thoughts on the position, modifications to the trade if any, and exit alerts when it’s time to exit.
This morning around 11:30 EST, we decided it was time to book profits on...
14 tags
AAPL Earnings Analysis
AAPL is an incredible company. I use their products every day, and intend to continue doing so for the unforeseeable future.
Today after the bell, AAPL reports Q2 earnings. Let’s take a moment to analyze the situation, just like we did with GOOG last week.
We will use the Weekly Options, which expire this Friday. AAPL stock is currently trading at 377.00…
Closest to the money...
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"We would reduce our assessment of event risk if... →
Lion + New MacBook Airs on the way. →
“Man is an animal that makes bargains: no other animal does this - no dog...”
– Adam Smith
